Thursday 19 March 2015

Is the Scottish menace real?

OK so let's assume the SNP does win fifty seats or nearly, and let's assume Labour is either the biggest party and will form a coalition, or the Conservatives are the biggest party but can't form a coalition so have to let Labour have a go, what happens about the Scottish 'menace' as they seem to be branded in England, I'm not sure why. Why are they being demonised? Anyway......where were we? Ah yes, what if a Labour minority government has to deal with the SNP? On most social and economic issues the policies of the SNP are almost indistinguishable from those of Labour, so no problem there. So where's the beef? Three problems : First there is the renewal of Trident which the SNP oppose and Labour supports. That can be solved by a commitment to move the Trident base out of Scotland and perhaps to the English South coast or similar. It is still a problem because of the cost or Trident which might divert funds away from Scotland. However, the Scots are going to be given the power to raise most of their own taxes so this ceases to be a serious problem. Second there is the question of devolution. How much additional devolution would the SNP demand in return for their co-operation? Lots, I suppose. Would Labour be wiling to grant them more devolution? Answer......yes but if it is left to Parliament it will be very difficult to get devolution though with a majority. A coalition of Tories and Labour members who oppose further devolution could defeat any proposals. So, the SNP might find themselves negotiating more devolution not with a Labour government but with Parliament as a whole. Labour might then muddle through. Third there is the West Lothian Question. Will SNP members still insist on voting on issues that only affect England? If this happens the legitimacy of any such decisions could be challenged. A Labour-SNP parliamentary majority on English issues looks problematic in democratic terms. If a Labour government insisted on SNP MPs withdrawing from the Commons on English-only issues, it might not command a majority. So it's the old West Lothian (EVEL) Question that looks like the real menace. For Labour the menace is real because a muddling, ineffective, short term Labour minority government would play very badly with the electorate and the next election, which must surely come sooner than later, would be an easy win for the Conservatives. Conclusion? My take on this is that The Conservatives won't be very disappointed to lose this election. They will look like a model of stability compared to a minority Labour administration and will have a new leader - Boris obviously - and off we go on a fun ride!

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