An explanation of the results of the 2020 general election

Since my last post giving the results of the 2020 general election events have moved on a little, but not much. I said that I thought UKIP would lose its only seat because Britain would vote to stay in the EU and so the party would have nowhere to go. Well, I still think they will have no seats after 2020 but for a different reason. Farage this week has hinted that the party will effectively dissolve itself if Britain votes to leave the EU. It may re-appear in another form, some kind of populist, anti-vested interest party, but UK Independence would look a little strange. Perhaps it will start campaigning against devolution and immigration alone. The migrant crisis, which looks set to run on for many years, has changed the context of the EU referendum and certainly strengthens the UKIP case for leaving and regaining control over our borders. Britain is already largely sealed off from the situation and leaving the EU would give an extra safeguard which would, I think, be widely popular. The Greens will change Natalie Bennett I expect but may hang on to their Brighton seat because Caroline Lucas is a one-off and very popular. They will be unlikely to make gains and might fall back in terms of votes if there is a Corbynite socialist (Old Labour) party contesting the election. Now to the nub of it. I cannot see any way forward for Labour other than to split. The party is now divided three ways, between the old centrist guard, the members plus supporters and the voters. An Old Labour Party could win some seats in the North (taking votes from UKIP) and maybe Scotland, but not so many, hence the low number. ‘New Labour’ would hang on to a substantial number of its traditional seats in Wales, the North West, Midlands and London but lose even more to the Conservatives than it did in 2015. Jarvis looks best placed to lead this group, though Kinnock junior has a shot. I think the Liberal Democrats can expect a partial recovery under Farron who appeals to a certain type of liberal (young idealists). The party is adding members and may find a niche, as Farron suggests, tucked between New Labour and Old Labour. But all this is overshadowed by the strong likelihood that the Conservatives will win the next election by an old style country mile. The referendum will paper over the cracks in the party; probably George Osborne will be the new leader with a good track record as Chancellor behind him (shades of Brown before the financial crisis swept him away) and still enjoying the proverbial honeymoon period, and the electoral system will work hugely in their favour, given the increasingly fragmented nature of the centre-left. I think my estimate of the majority might be conservative (no pun intended).

The Result of the 2010 General Election

Here is the result of the 2020 General Election (assuming there are still 650 seats – adjust accordingly if the number is reduced). Conservative 398. Led by George Osborne New Labour 120. Led by Dan Jarvis Old Labour 36. Led by Jeremy Corbyn Liberal Democrat 26. Led by Tim Farron SNP 45. Led by Nicola Sturgeon Plaid Cymru 5. Led by Leanne Wood Green 2. Led by Jenny Jones Northern Ireland Seats 18. Led by various UKIP 0. Led by Nigel Farage Others 0. Conservative Majority: 146 Next time I shall try to explain these results. They are based, incidentally, on the assumption that the UK will vote to remain a member of the EU. All bets are off if we don’t.