It's not the economy stupid

It is a puzzle to me why the Conservatives are not leading in the polls. The economic indicators are nearly all moving in the 'right' direction for them - growth, inflation (especially car and home fuel), interest rates, standards of living, lower taxes etc. OK they have half failed on deficit reduction, but that is moving also in the right direction. We all know 'it's the economy stupid', so why? I can offer four suggestions: 1. The NHS 2. Ukip taking away their support. 3. The sense of growing inequality. 4. People just don't like Tories at the moment. I suspect it's all four. It's not just the economy stupid.

TV Debates - Irish party nonsense

A load of nonsense is being talked about including Northern Ireland parties taking part in TV debates. There is a fundamental difference between Plaid Cymru, SNP and the Irish parties. Plaid and the SNP have to run against the main UK parties - Cons, Labour and Lib Dem, the Northern Irish parties do not. They run against each other. What on earth would be the point of Sinn Fein or DUP debating against parties who are NOT their opponents? Plain silly talk.

Scotland the not so brave

Todays' poll in Scotland says they will win nearly all the seats. This looks a freak result. The Scottish vote will, I think, inevitably fall as we near the election. Furthermore, if you look at constituencies, many labour held seats have huge majorities. Despite the big increase in SNP support these big majorities will be difficult to overturn. I think 25 is a maximum and predict 20 SNP seats.

The Party System is not permanent - necessarily

Thanks to Maajestic. I think a referendum on the EU is in everyone's interests. I wonder if there is a possibility, after an inconclusive election result, which seems likely, that a short term pro EU coalition might be formed containing Labour, Lib Dem, SNP and a section of the Conservative Party. In the same vein I wonder whether the Conservative party might split over Europe. We assume that parties will stay together for ever, a bit like marriages when they start, but there is no reason why parties should not split, especially if the two party system collapses. Thinking off the wall, what about a coalition between the Conservatives and a section of Labour (like the Conservative/Liberal coalition of the early twentieth century which split the Tories? My feeling is that what is most likely post May 7 is a short lived minority government followed by some sort of re-alignment in British politics and another election.

The Election Result

I have calculated the result of the 2015 general election. Assuming opinion polls won't move much between now and May (they won't). For this election you have to look at each individual constituency. National party ratings in the polls will not convert uniformly to overall seats. Labour 301 Conservative 289 SNP 20 Liberal Democrat 13 Ukip 4 Green 2 Plaid Cymru 3 Dem.Unionist 7 Sinn Fein 6 SDLP 3 Alliance 1 Independent 1 Total 650 There you go! Just a reminder. My novel, The Turning Wheel is available on Amazon Kindle and will be available from Amazon in paperback next month.