How is Labour really doing?

At first sight Labour's performance has been pretty poor in opposition. Having polled 29% in 2010 they are now running at about 33% in the polls, an increase of just 4%. If, however, the Liberal Democrat meltdown benefits Labour more than the Conservatives we must put, say, 5% down to fleeing Lib Dem supporters rather than anything Labour has done. This implies that, within the same group of voters they have lost 1% of support. The causes of this malaise have been well documented already, but the party certainly needs to gain a sense of reality. That said, a couple of points can mitigate their failure. The first is, of course, Scotland. Most of the increase in SNP support is at Labour's expense, so, without the SNP surge, the party might be 4% better off nationally. So, we are back where we started. Labour has made some, though little, progress since 2010. Now the loss of support to the SNP may, to some extent, be Labour's fault, but surely it is to do with London government generally rather than Labour itself? Second there is the government's record. In terms of the economy Labour has suffered blow after blow. There is healthy growth, no inflation, the deficit is falling (notwithstanding the broken promise), unemployment is falling and now, the real standard of living (which Labour put up as its trump card when it was falling)is now rising. In past years such an economic record would have guaranteed a big win for the governing party. Yet Labour is hanging in there. Apart from the obvious NHS issue they have also succeeded in presenting the Conservatives as the party of the rich and privileged minority. In other words they may not have presented themselves well, but have managed to keep Conservative support depressed by attacking them where they are weakest.