Thursday 23 July 2015

Labour-looking for a messiah

There seems to be a rather unreal debate going on within the Labour leadership about the Corbyn ‘threat’. I say unreal because it appears obvious to most of us that, barring some kind of Iraq-like event (not out of the question in view of the government’s apparent desire for mission creep over Syria), Labour cannot win any general election for the foreseeable future. Scotland has gone and there seems no way back and the Conservatives now dominate England outside the North. Furthermore, assuming support for UKIP declines after the referendum vote, the Conservative grip over the South and Midlands will be strengthened. In other words the electoral arithmetic now suggests Labour cannot win. As long as the economy continues to grow and the key indicators (with the notable exception of inequality) stay favourable it looks like an increased Conservative majority next time, possibly for a generation. The idea that Labour can win by being a slightly nicer version of the Conservatives is seriously misplaced, so too is the idea that the electorate simply needs an alternative, even if the alternative is virtually identical, like gas or electricity suppliers, in order to satisfy the needs of democracy. No, until there is an opportunity for significant change, Labour looks likely to wander for many years in the Wilderness, like the Israelites except it is hard to imagine where the promised land lies. There is also no sign of a Moses on the horizon. This will leave many in the UK seriously disenfranchised with nobody to represent them. I refer to the poor, to exploited workers and many of the radical young. Jeremy Corbyn does at least offer some sort of programme for them. He can’t win governmental power, but at least their voice might be heard if he leads Labour. Put another way, if labour is going to lose and go on losing it might as well do so with some of its traditional principles intact. There is just one hope for the centre-left. This is that its currently disparate forces could unite. At the moment it is split five ways (Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid, Green). Such a unification will need a messiah but Corbyn does not like one of those.

No comments: