Beastly Eastleigh

Eastleigh is an unusual constituency. It ought to be a very safe Conservative seat but has been held by Liberal Democrats for many years, probably because of a very strong local organisation. It was therefore inevitable that the by election would also be unusual, and so it has proved. The most extraordinary event, even by Nick Clegg standards, was his assertion that the LIb Dems won a 'stunning' victory. He has to be upbeat to be sure, but one suspects he may believe his own rhetoric. It was a very poor result for the Lib Dems, who lost so many of their votes, though not as bad as it might have been given the circumstances. The fees issue probably does not play too much in a place like Eastleigh because the population is very well heeled. the fees issue will dog the Lib Dems in less well off places. The only stunning thing about it was that the Lib Dems were stunned that they won. It was bad for the Conservatives - obviously - and very bad for Labour, whose candidate, whom I like in general - fought a hopeless campaign. Labour should be gaining votes simply on two issues - the NHS and inequality. It is not and that is extraordinary to see. Miliband 's role was almost invisible. It also demonstrates the severe damage that Ukip can inflict on them. Even if their vote halves in a general election, it will be enough to deprive the Conservatives of many otherwise winnable seats. The electoral system is now turning back and biting its own master ! So all three parties will be gald to see the bacl of Eastleigh at least until 2015. They will all feel on safer ground in kinder places. Who was the real winner ? Probably Boris Johnson.