Tuesday 19 February 2013

kicking into an open goal

I am not an apologist for the Labour Party, but it seems to me that Miliband is shooting at an open goal. All the polls and the public mood suggest he should have an easy task in inspiring voters to abandon both coalition partners and try Labour again. He will have to accept a share of the blame for the recession but, afetr five years, the charge that the government was left with a mess is beginning to weaken. It also seems clear that the issues which will, and should, attract public support are now obvious. What's more, they mostly accord with traditiuonal Labour vaues so there need be no charges of opportunism. They are : 1. Give the electorate a vote on the EU. Labour has always been somewhat sceptical. I am convinced that, provided the 'stay in'campaign can convince the electorate that the EU is not resposnible for the European Convention on Human Rights, their campaign will prevail. This wil shoot the foxes of both UKIP and the Tory Right. If all three main parties, plus UKIP, promise a vote after 2015, it will cease to be an election issue. 2. Taxing the very rich is a no brainer. What Miliband needs is some specific proposals, not vague aspirations. Over 90% of the population will support it. 3. Bearing down on tax avoidance and evasion. Again specific proposals are needed. Naming and shaming will work well, I am sure, but there needs to be new laws closing tax avoidance schemes, if possible international. 4. Accepting the welfare and tax reforms now in train. 5. A huge re-commitment to 'saving' and improving the NHS. 6. Even more redaical proposals for care of the elderly than are now proposed. 7. Accepting tighter immigration and migration controls, but stressing the importance of a diverse society. 8. Do nothing on primary/secondary education - a moratorium on reform and making a virtue of it. Teachers (who vote) want some stability. However, much more radical policies on opening wider access to higher education. Specific proposals needed again. 9. He should look at the Japanese model of financing major intrastructure projects using quanitative easing to finance it. Clearly providing extra liquidity to the banks was a failure. Any new injections of liquidity must go directly into capital expenditure. This will end recession and boost employment. It is an inflationary policy, but we can stand a small rise in prices and the increased interest rates that will result. Low interest rates may have gone on too long. There is huge low interest fatigue among savers - and savers are often voters. Above all, he needs to develop specific proposals now - it is no longer acceptable to have vague aspirations and telling the electorate that specifics will come later. he needs to capture the political agenda now. Every indication says that Labour should not lose the next election. Labour supporters, however, must now be worried that Miliband could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (remember Kinnock in 1992). Kinnock probably lost because of hubris, Miliband might lose through sheer indecisiveness and lassitude. Of course, all this could not disguise the lack of long term vision within Labour.......but that's another issue.

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