More thoughts on the US electoral college

I have to claim some credit for calling the US election pretty well though I got the margin of Obama's electoral college victory wrong (assuming Obama wins Florida, that is - why is it always Florida ? Something seems to be rotten in the state). In particular it has indeed come to pass that a very close contest in terms of the popular vote looks like a decisive win for Obama as a result of the distortion of the electoral college. A further aspect does, however, seem to be emerging in this election. That is the increasing polarisation of different sectors of American society, rather than the normal analysis on a state-by-state basis. Women, ethnic minorities and the young are increasingly Democrat-leaning, while white males who are middle aged and elderly are opredominantly Republican. This is potentially dangerous as it can give rise to excessive pluralism and political pluralism is likely to make governing even more difficult than the traditional institutional system of checks and balances has suggested in the past. Before we casually jump on the idea that the USA might become kind of 'Weimar' country where excessive pluralism creates political paralysis and gives rise to right-wing, authoritarian extremism, we need to take care. While the USA remains a staunchly two party system there is a safety valve in place. Thus, when American society becomes dissatisfied with the way they are being governed (or 'over-governed' as many Repubocans might say), it can simply turn to the other party next time elections come round. Mid term elections in the US certainly play that role. In Weimar Germany there was no alternative except another ineffectual, short-term coalition. The point of all this is to say, perhaps, that, although America's two party system looks, at first sight, to be hopelessly (not least by the exigencies of party finance) corrupted and out of step with an increasingly pluralist society, further consideration may indicate that it can actually save America from internal social collapse. In so far as the electoral college underpins the two party system, perhaps it is supportable. With no electoral college in place third, fourth and more candidates might enter the field and enjoy some success. The college helps to keep out too many alternatives and the prospect of more deadlocked results.