Thinking more about the terrible events of the last week, I offer a word of caution and a suggestion.
There is a danger that we attempt to find 'holistic' answers to what is a multi-layered problem. Thinkers of both the right and left tend to ofer such holistic responses. The right refer to policing, crime and punishment solutions. The left concentrate on socio-economic solutions.
We need to deconstruct the issues. I suggest a five layered approach. These are also in order of time scale, the first ones being possible in the near future, the later ones being generational.
Level 1 - sort out policing, making streets safe, protecting people and property more effectively.
Level 2 - attack gang culture and all that goes with it.
Level 3 - micro socio-economic. This concerns issues surrounding the family failure, schooling, voluntary organisations etc.
Level 4 - macro socio-economic. This concerns the welfare system, inequality, aspiration, social mobility, opportunity, employment and training.
Level 5 - the cultural/moral climate. This is about the moral climate which encourages acquisitiveness, greed, consumerism, lack of moral restraint etc. This pervades all levels of society etc. - top to bottom.
If we do deconstruct the issues like this, we may be able to attack the problem more effectively. You can eat an elephant - but only if you take it one meal at a time.
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And it was interesting to note the speeches by the PM and Miliband this morning. Personally, I viewed it as what is common at the moment between the two leaders: Yes, a lot of Cameron's neo-liberalism retoric by be just retoric (and may be an opportunity to push 'tough' conservative ideologies, now that he has a small window with public oppinion on his side),but at least he is suggesting actions and acting in a decisive manner (no matter how 'hot air' it turns out to be). In comaprison, with Miliband, we got the usual 30 minute spiel, which leaves one with the lingering thought of 'so what exactly does HE propose,,,what does he want to do??' THe policy free/commitment desert was most apparent with all talk and no substance. Yes, he recommends a commision, and states that he will instigate one in the event that the coalition (conservatives) choose(s) not to iniciate one themselves, but he is far from coming forward with decisive politics.
Now, we acknowledge the fact that the opposition are currently partaking in a 'comprehensive' policy review, to re-brand their image after the cremation of New Labour, and consider ways forward instead of jumping in in full blown opposition with ill fought out policies, but the thing with EXTENDED periods in the wilderness is that parties may appear indecisive,and they may come across as weak in leadership and unity, give the layman the impression of 'are they still around', in addition to the fact that they risk the chance that the governing party gains momentum in the interim, plus the fact that Miliband's ideas for his 'ideal' shadow cabinet won't even come in to effect until post september after a party conference (subject ot a ya vote to change the selection rules). How will this 'extended' policy review look in the light of a new shadow cabinet??
IMO, the recent events have shown much of current political standpoints- Cameroon at least show signs of direction and decisiveness (whatever the retoric translates into in terms of longer term policy is another story), wheras Miliband meanders in the policy free desert of zero direction and ideas.
Just my 2 cents.
I agree with James that there does need to be some immediate action, not just rhetoric.
I think thre needs to be two tranches. First, some action on policing, public order and gangs. This should be done quickly to allay public fears, followed by a much more measured approach. But is is very complex, make no mistake.
I know that there are an infinite amount of variables at play, but do you fancy Labours' chances of regaining power under Ed Miliband?
Personally, and appreciating that so many things could occur in the ensuing time before the next election (assuming the coalition survives), I think that they won't have a prayer. I thought at the time that David Milliband not securing the mantle was the worst thing that could have happened to their long term re-election chances.
Also, it seems odd that there has been hardly any major Lib Dem input in this rioting fiasco. You'd have thought that civil liberties etc would be buttressed forward, and, also, they are supposed to be leading in government too!!
Neil, I see that you brought out a book called 'understanding British and EU political issues, a year or so ago. Has this book been, more or less, COMPLETELY rewriten, in comparion to your '03 version.
I may purchase it as i find that such books give a good, general overview.
Naturally though, if it is like many updated texts (you know, just the odd thing changed here and there)it may not be advantageous to purchase,,,,but I imagine that you must have completely re-wrote much of it, considering how fast the welfare state, economy,,,,NHS etc has changed between 2003-2010.
Also, does it contain stuff about Labour's poverty reducing record?
James - Yes the book was re-written last year so was up to date approximately as at the last general election.
Interesting comments in the disorders aftermath. I suppose the Government has the advantage of being in a position to take action - as seen with sentencing which seems to be going down very well in liddle England. The Opposition, in contrast are powerless. However right Miliband may be in saying let's take the long view, but it can look rather 'lame'.
As to Labour's prospects I suspect the old adage 'It's the Economy stupid'will apply.
Yes, and who knows what will occur in the upcoming 4 years. And I agree with your Clinton comment, economy angle- look at the battle that is beginning to take shape in the US primaries. 90% of it is concerned with the economy/job situation.
My take on it is: we arrive at 2015and the coalition's still standing. If the deficit is substantially reduced- something that they'll run on if that is the case, AND unemployment is no worse than today, AND the economy is at least showing marginal signs of improvement (not great, but more than the 0.1% of today), I think that the electorate will see progress of sorts and that Labour will find it tough. HOwever, if 'events baby' dictate otherwise: euro pans out even worse, unemployement substantially increases (with no fudging of the numbers, using 'work for you dole' and people on the sick not being used in the figures)and growth is still non-existant, coupled with an inevitable crises that may occur somewhere in the world what know one can predict (mass floodings, argentines' invading the falklands when Blighty's military is down (subject to their resources of course)), Labour may get back through the back door. However, I suppose that the electorate, since '79 are sympathetic to one term governments, giving them another term at least to prove their worth- the two/three term itch comes into play later. That changes of course given the fact that now it's a coalition.
Who knows? The government may not even survive until 2015 and everything is then wide open. If I were a betting man, I'd put £10 on it that they will not, but the small wager shows my confidence in my prediction.
(As an aside, I find it ausing and typical that the proposed 'MP recall elections' never panned out. Even more ironic is that it was a manifestop pledge in ALL THREE of the major parties' manifestos [so why the hell couldn't it fly through parliament]. I emailed tory MP Zac Goldsmith about this, as he was championing it. I discussed that I noticed that the bill appeared to be stalled at 2nd reading for Jan of this year. He told me that it has gone south, with no wide support. He said that he's still pushing for it, however. That (3 party) manifesto pledge appealed to me,,,direct democracy, accountability etc, and looking what impact it can have ala recent recall elections in Wisconsin USA)
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