Get on with it.

It now seems pretty clear that the delay and confusion over the arrangements for leaving the EU have become damaging to all concerned - to the government, to parliament, to the Conservative Party and to the UK's standing in the world. It is not really a complicated issue and needs to be dealt with decisively. The points are : 1 Referendums are not legally binding. 2 Referendums are clearly politically binding 3 The result of the referendum, if it entails any changes to the law and the constitution, must be confirmed by parliament (not the government) because parliament is sovereign. 4 The independent judiciary has ruled this. 5 The House of Commons will clearly approve the referendum result. So what's the problem? 6 If the Lords does not confirm it, it will effectively abolish itself. In other words they wouldn't dare. So what's the problem? 7 The question of how much input parliament should have over any future trade arrangements etc. is a separate issue and can wait a little. 8 I agree with those who say parliament should not dictate policy on trade deals. 9 However, parliament should certainly have the right to approve any negotiated deals (as the US Congress has). This is not a constitutional requirement but is politically sensible. 10 It would be better if there were an early election and the government's general negotiating aims should be in the Conservative manifesto. It is not a secret, or certainly should not be a secret so no harm done. Incidentally it was pretty shocking, even by UKIP standards , to hear a spokeswoman say on today's Today programme on Radio 4, that the judges should be brought 'under democratic control'. Hello Mr Humphreys, why didn't you stop her there? We do need clarity and we need it NOW!

Parties as vehicles for change

Watching Jeremy Paxman’s investigation of the US election the other day set me to thinking, just as Paxman was asking, how things had descended to such a low level. He was certainly asking the right questions but not receiving many cogent answers. Still, it was enjoyable watching his facial expressions as they moved from amusement, to horror to incredulity. Only one of his interviewees attempted a definitive answer by saying that the problem was leadership, or rather the lack of it. Well, yes, we didn’t really need an expert to tell us that. There must be something deeper. A parallel thought was entering my head as I pondered this. It occurred to me that, in the UK at least, periods of important political, economic and social change happen in twenty year cycles. There was the forties, of course, with the development of the welfare state and the bringing into public ownership of many industries; this was followed by the sixties with economic re-structuring together with social and cultural reform; then the eightees and the Thatcher transformation; finally the New Labour wave arrived at the end of the last century. Four cycles separated by twenty years a piece. If you are ahead of me you will realise that the next cycle should arrive at the end of this decade. Certainly change is long overdue. Society is being de-stabilised by the large and growing proportion of the population who have been left behind by globalisation and the prosperity it has brought to the majority. Inequality is threatening the cohesion of society and public services are coming under increasing pressure as policy makers seek to bear down on the fiscal deficit. It is certainly not an original thought that the large vote for Scottish independence, the EU Leave vote and the rise of UKIP are al cries for help rather than genuine expressions of policy preferences. But why have they been needed? Paxman’s interlocutor who replied ‘Leadership’ when asked what the problem is was right, although the dissatisfied elements in society have found individuals to latch onto – Trump, Farage, Corbyn and Saunders are the obvious examples, but Europe is also littered with them. Yet these populist leaders are not realistic catalysts for change because none of them will ever win elections (I am writing ahead of the US election, so I am taking a chance of Trump losing – surely he must). No, the normal historical experience is that a political party will emerge with a programme of reform that can galvanise the nation and drive through reform. I am looking towards the horizon and there is no sign of such a party. There are only a few years to go before that cycle comes round. Can anyone imagine a party in the 2020 UK general election being ready to weep to power and save the country from further unhappiness? The awful thought has occurred to me that the days when parties were effective vehicles for change has passed. In their place there is a dangerous vacuum. Nature abhors a vacuum, the saying goes, so it will be filled for sure. By whom? Well, by the kind of populists we are now seeing on the political stage. It is not a pleasant thought.

The Great Easter Debate

The current debate about whether the Christian festival or Easter should be fixed at the same time every year instead of wandering about over a period of weeks as it does now (something to do with the Spring equinox and full moons I think - does it matter?) falls into the same category as many other issues where there it is blindingly obvious that something should be done and the vast majority of people want something to be done, but nobody can actually bring it about. Just to dwell on Easter specifically for a moment, it is absurd that Christians should accept that Christmas falls on the same date every year but that Easter does not (yes, yes, I know the Easter Church has a different Christmas, but it is still on the same date every year), after all, both were specific events which, if they did indeed take place (let’s assume they did)took place at a specific time, and did not somehow wander about. Why is Easter different? An expert I heard recently has established that Good Friday occurred on April 5th, 34 AD, i.e. two days after Passover in that year. Passover, by the way, also wanders about for no apparent reason. That’ll do for me. Apparently the rules governing the date of Easter date back so some sort of convocation of clerics in the Middle Ages. I will leave what I think about that to your imagination. So there is a widespread support for fixing the date of Easter, it will help schools (some of which are no longer basing their Spring holiday on Easter but simply having Good Friday and Easter Monday as separate holidays, very sensible except that it causes problems with kids at different schools), it will help businesses and will also help all those involved in the celebration of Easter including vicars and priests. Above all it would be triumph of logic over superstition and inertia So what has this to do with anything? Well quite a bit actually. It falls into the same category as issues like reforming the House of Lords and abolishing Greenwich Meantime (or is it British Summer Time, whatever, changing the clocks, I mean?) and, stretching the point a little, adopting a more sensible voting system for Westminster. We all know it should be done, most want it done, the world would be improved if it were done, but it never gets done. Sometimes it is arguments over detail that create inertia, as in the case of Lords reform, but generally it is because of a lack of political will. In the end the people who could effect change simply can’t stir themselves to do it. They just can’t be bothered. This means that all the good that can flow from reform is lost. What’s the answer? Sometimes it is a crisis or key event of some kind. For example, had the UK elected a second hung parliament in a row in 2015 the calls for a change to the electoral system might have become unstoppable. Until such occurrences happen we have to listen to the voices that say ‘it ain’t broke so let’s not fix it,’ or ‘it has stood the test of time etc.’ The trouble is, very often it is ‘broke’ and it will not stand the test of time any longer, but still the voices of inertia drone on. In the end only two possibilities are left. One is people power and the other is the emergence of a charismatic figure who can lead us into the light. Sadly most of these issues just aren’t important enough so we will have to muddle along for another thousand years. The really sad thing is that the UK is, at least in name, a parliamentary democracy. Parliament has the power, MPs have little enough to do while they are in London, so it’s up to them to stand up and be counted, show a little chutzpah and get on with it. Otherwise what is the use of parliament if it refuses to do slightly difficult things?

The Jeremy Hunt conspiracy theory

A conspiracy theory is doing the rounds, well at least the rounds of the North London chatterati, that Jeremy Hunt’s woeful performance as a minister is actually a subtle long term plan to privatise the NHS. Put simply, the idea is that he will prove that the current NHS arrangement is unworkable by stumbling from one crisis to the next, so that getting rid of it will seem like a blessing. My political memory goes back a long way but I cannot remember a senior minister who has so startlingly created such a poor record for themselves another. Worse still, in this case it all seems to be of his own making. There was the case of Labour education minister Estelle Minister who ‘outed’ herself in 2002 as ‘not up to the job,’ but she was not in post for very long and did not perpetrate any major single gaffes. Specifically her department missed its numeracy and literacy targets and she promised to resign if this happened. Well, if ministers resigned when their department missed its targets, the government benches would look pretty empty most of the time, not least George Osborne’s seat. If we go back to the sixties, Frank Cousins, a prominent trade union leader, was found a safe parliamentary seat for Labour and elevated into government (as technology minister - a strange appointment as trade union leaders were notorious at the time for obstructing technological advances on the grounds that they cost jobs). Cousins proved to be incompetent and lasted only twenty months. The Conservatives, too, have appointed a number of ‘business leaders’ who have failed as ministers. It is always difficult to know whether dismissed minister has lost his or her job because they have fallen out with the PM or they simply aren’t up to it, but there has undoubtedly been a cavalcade of poor tenures as long as the list of failed England football managers. Hunt, though, takes the biscuit. Since taking office in the last government he has consistently missed targets, the performance of several key aspects of the NHS has declined, he has failed to secure from the Treasury anything like the funds needed to maintain the service at its current levels, there are now chronic staff shortages, and, of course, he has succeeded in provoking a war with his own loyal employees. By any standards it is a dismal record. Hunt is, I suppose, unlucky in that he compares so badly to a number of ministers who have considerable experience and who have gained the respect of parts of the political community; I mean May, Osborne, Duncan Smith and the like. Beside them Jeremy Hunt increasingly looks like the hapless schoolboy who has forgotten to hand in his homework...again! Before you accuse me of being anti-Conservative, I should say that, when I look over at the Labour benches, I am not sure much better is available. Certainly Andy Burnham was not exactly a roaring success. So what is going on? Certainly Hunt’s survival seems to be largely about the fact that he is a close ally of the prime minister. Cameron needs allies at this difficult time and Hunt is as staunch as they come. But what about the conspiracy theory? I am not normally a fan of such phenomena. I do think that Kennedy was shot by one or two left wing fanatics and not the Mafia, I do believe that man landed on the moon in 1969 and that it was Islamic extremists who flew the planes into the World Trade Centre in 2001 and not the CIA. In this case, though, the Hunt Conspiracy that is, I have to say it seems to hold more water than most of the other theories.

The Football Association and Trident

So what on earth is the link between the English Football Association (or perhaps FIFA) and Trident? The answer is simple....well not that simple. The issue about Trident renewal often boils down to the apparently contradictory principle that Trident is a weapon that can never be used but which nevertheless is believed to be a deterrent. ..and some of its supporters actually state that they would never use it. How can this be? Perhaps a way of solving this apparent conundrum is to consider the case of the Football Association (FA) and the practice of many top footballers of removing their shirts when they score a goal. Some wave them about, some throw them into the crowd and some just put them on again when they have emerged from the heap of players who fall on top of them. Why do they do this? They never used to ‘in the old days’ after all. I suspect it is because they are anxious to show off their impressive torsos in search of a lucrative underwear modelling contract. It cannot be to attract women as their humungously large salaries should do that for them...but I digress. I have not gone mad – there is a link with the Trident issue. The FA do not approve of the practice of shirt removal and want it stopped ( can’t imagine why, it seems rather harmless, but that’s the FA for you – killjoys). To demonstrate their disapproval referees are instructed to issue a yellow card when it happens. Sadly this has not proved a deterrent (ah a glimmer of light). Players do not especially fear yellow cards unless they get two in a match in which case they will be sent off (one player once did remove his shirt twice in a game and was thus dismissed – his manager was less than pleased to say the least). Now, if the FA are serious about stopping shirt removals they can do so at a stroke. Simply instruct referees to issue a red card if a player takes off his shirt after scoring ( a goal, that is, not with his WAG). The practice will immediately stop. No player would risk the ire of his manager and team mates by getting himself sent off for something so trivial. So the red card would be an effective deterrent just as the yellow is not. Thing is, the red card sounds very harsh, but IT WOULD NEVER BE USED. However, the red card will have to continue as a threat or the shirts will start coming off again. I can leave you to figure the rest. I rest my case.

Is the EU more democratic than the UK?

It is almost a pronouncement of faith that the EU is less democratic than, for example, the UK, but does this common assertion stand up to scrutiny? Not necessarily so and the current round of talks on reform instituted by the British government informs us a great deal on this issue. To begin with the criticism that the EU’s policy and decision making bodies, the Commission and the Council, are unelected and unaccountable. This is undeniably true, though the ministers are accountable to their own parliaments and ultimately their people. In the UK the executive operates with a large army of unelected civil servants and advisers while the government itself was elected by only a little over 20% of the qualified electorate (taking into account a turnout of little over 65%). It will not be accountable to the electorate until 2020 and Parliament is showing itself remarkably ineffective in this regard. While on the subject of elections, half the UK Parliament is not elected at all. If we look at regional politics, in the UK the Conservative government can hardly be said to represent the national and sub central regions. The government has no seats in Northern Ireland, one in Scotland and a handful in Wales. Similarly it is in a minority in London seats and has about a third of the seats north of Birmingham. By contrast the EU has mechanisms in place – majority or unanimous voting – that ensure that all the nations of Europe can have their say and can influence final decisions. The current deal being negotiated will require the unanimous approval of all member states. Unlike Scotland, no member country will be forced to accept a change it does not like. In a few months Scotland and Wales might be forced to leave the EU against their will. How democratic is that? Turning to the two parliaments, the EU parliament (Increasingly influential incidentally) lacks a majority for the electorate. Different political groupings can influence in the Parliament by joining alliances with others on specific issues. The European executive cannot bulldoze measures through the parliament by using a secure majority. No such thing exists. The result is that consensus politics rules in the EU Parliament. In the UK, by contrast, as long as government has a Commons majority (based on a popular minority) it can almost guarantee that all its legislation will pass virtually unhindered. So the assumption that, if all the UK’s powers are repatriated we will enjoy greater democracy, cannot be sustained. EU democracy remains highly imperfect, but set against the UK’s democratic deficit, it looks rather more attractive.

Ten years to save the Labour Party

Labour would do well to accept that it will be out of power for at least the next ten years. This may prove to be a blessing in disguise if it handles this reality properly. The upcoming May series of elections may help the party to understand its predicament (predicament is a kind word). It seems to me it must now take a number of steps to survive in the long term: 1. The party will have to split. The new left, ’Corbynite’ grouping must be uncoupled from mainstream centre-left Labour. 2. The new centre-left party (probably called Social Democrats, leaving the title ‘Labour’ for the left wing rump of the party) must amalgamate with the Liberal Democrats. It would be ridiculous to have two parties with an almost identical ideological stance competing against one another. 3. This new Social (Liberal) Democrat party will have to make common cause with the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the SNP, stopping short of amalgamation, as these other three parties need to retain their identity. This would prevent them allying with the old Labour left. 4. The new party will have to identify early those people who are potential future leaders. The discredited ‘not so old guard’ of the likes of Burnham, Cooper, Watson etc. must be marginalised in favour of a new cohort, perhaps the likes of Jarvis and Kinnock. 5. The new party would have to accept all the errors made by Labour under Blair and Brown and simply state it will not repeat them. 6. It should concentrate on a few absolutely key issues for the electorate. Among them should be : • Saving the NHS – its principles and its funding. • Increasing spending on education, especially to improve opportunities for school leavers. • Tackling effectively the inequalities in the tax system, especially the affairs of large companies and wealthy individuals. • Reducing taxes, local and national, on small and medium sized businesses. • Introduce the ‘citizens’ income’ now being trialled in Finland • Guaranteeing a generous living wage for all. • Outlawing most zero hours contracts. • Investing in infrastructure, especially outside the South-East, using quantitative easing. • Locking itself into fiscal restraints • Guaranteeing more effective controls over non-EU immigration, while accepting a fair share of asylum seekers and genuine refugees. • Taking steps to disengage the UK from the affairs of the Middle East and North Africa. • Restore spending on policing to pre 2010 levels. • Preserve the BBC as a high quality public service broadcaster • Dedicate more resources to care of the elderly That’s fourteen policies that conform to Labour’s traditional ideology and which can be supported by the vast majority of the people of the UK. There are trickier issues on constitutional reform, defence and welfare, for example, but a clear message on these core key issues would restore much confidence in the party that should occupy the centre ground of politics in the UK. The Beckett approach – keep on with the old policies but present them more effectively - will not do. Nor will burying the party’s head in the sand over its past errors. Whatever one’s own political preferences, it is vital that the UK returns to having an effective second party both to ensure government is accountable and to provide a realistic alternative.